MASCIADRI, ELENAELENAMASCIADRILascaux, F.F.LascauxTURCHI, ALESSIOALESSIOTURCHIFini, L.L.Fini2020-08-312020-08-3120170035-8711http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12386/26985One of the main goals of the feasibility study MOSE (MOdelling ESO Sites) is to evaluate the performances of a method conceived to forecast the optical turbulence (OT) above the European Southern Observatory (ESO) sites of the Very Large Telescope (VLT) and the European Extremely Large Telescope (E-ELT) in Chile. The method implied the use of a dedicated code conceived for the OT called ASTRO-MESO-NH. In this paper, we present results we obtained at conclusion of this project concerning the performances of this method in forecasting the most relevant parameters related to the OT (C<SUB>N</SUB>^2, seeing ∊, isoplanatic angle θ<SUB>0</SUB> and wavefront coherence time τ<SUB>0</SUB>). Numerical predictions related to a very rich statistical sample of nights uniformly distributed along a solar year and belonging to different years have been compared to observations, and different statistical operators have been analysed such as the classical bias, root-mean-squared error, σ and more sophisticated statistical operators derived by the contingency tables that are able to quantify the score of success of a predictive method such as the percentage of correct detection (PC) and the probability to detect a parameter within a specific range of values (POD). The main conclusions of the study tell us that the ASTRO-MESO-NH model provides performances that are already very good to definitely guarantee a not negligible positive impact on the service mode of top-class telescopes and ELTs. A demonstrator for an automatic and operational version of the ASTRO-MESO-NH model will be soon implemented on the sites of VLT and E-ELT.STAMPAenArticle10.1093/mnras/stw31112-s2.0-85018280808000398112400035https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/466/1/520/26177342017MNRAS.466..520MFIS/05 - ASTRONOMIA E ASTROFISICA