Scolini, CamillaCamillaScoliniMESSEROTTI, MauroMauroMESSEROTTIPoedts, StefaanStefaanPoedtsRodriguez, LucianoLucianoRodriguez2021-04-202021-04-2020182115-7251http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12386/30812In this study we present a statistical analysis of 53 fast Earth-directed halo CMEs observed by the SOHO/LASCO instrument during the period Jan. 2009-Sep. 2015, and we use this CME sample to test the capabilities of a Sun-to-Earth prediction scheme for CME geoeffectiveness. First, we investigate the CME association with other solar activity features by means of multi-instrument observations of the solar magnetic and plasma properties. Second, using coronagraphic images to derive the CME kinematical properties at 0.1 AU, we propagate the events to 1 AU by means of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model. Simulation results at Earth are compared with in-situ observations at L1. By applying the pressure balance condition at the magnetopause and a solar wind-Kp index coupling function, we estimate the expected magnetospheric compression and geomagnetic activity level, and compare them with global data records. The analysis indicates that 82% of the CMEs arrived at Earth in the next 4 days. Almost the totality of them compressed the magnetopause below geosynchronous orbits and triggered a geomagnetic storm. Complex sunspot-rich active regions associated with energetic flares result the most favourable configurations from which geoeffective CMEs originate. The analysis of related SEP events shows that 74% of the CMEs associated with major SEPs were geoeffective. Moreover, the SEP production is enhanced in the case of fast and interacting CMEs. In this work we present a first attempt at applying a Sun-to-Earth geoeffectiveness prediction scheme - based on 3D simulations and solar wind-geomagnetic activity coupling functions - to a statistical set of potentially geoeffective halo CMEs. The results of the prediction scheme are in good agreement with geomagnetic activity data records, although further studies performing a fine-tuning of such scheme are needed. <P />ELETTRONICOenArticle10.1051/swsc/20170462-s2.0-85042201417000425456800003https://www.swsc-journal.org/articles/swsc/full_html/2018/01/swsc170032/swsc170032.html2018JSWSC...8A...9SFIS/05 - ASTRONOMIA E ASTROFISICA