MORGANTE, GIANLUCAGIANLUCAMORGANTE2023-02-152023-02-152022http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12386/33473This document reports the details of the uncertainty analysis calculation performed to evaluate the uncertainty margins that, together with the systematic modelling error, indicate the errors that build the predicted results of the Ariel payload thermal model. This is a living document that will follow the evolution of the payload thermal architecture and analysis during the design consolidation process. Keywords: thermal design and analysis, thermal model, spacecraft thermal control, cryogenics, exoplanets, infrared spectroscopyELETTRONICOenResearch reportFIS/05 - ASTRONOMIA E ASTROFISICAERC sectors::Physical Sciences and Engineering::PE9 Universe sciences: astro-physics/chemistry/biology; solar systems; stellar, galactic and extragalactic astronomy, planetary systems, cosmology, space science, instrumentation::PE9_17 Instrumentation – telescopes, detectors and techniques