Forcing Seasonality of Influenza-like Epidemics with Daily Solar Resonance

Journal
Date Issued
2020
Author(s)
•
•
Antonello, E
•
•
Biasin, M
•
Brucato, JR
•
•
•
Salvati, M
•
•
Trabattoni, D
•
Clerici, M
DOI
Abstract
Seasonality of acute viral respiratory diseases is a well-known and yet not fully understood phenomenon. Several models have been proposed to explain the regularity of yearly recurring outbreaks and the phase differences observed at different latitudes on the Earth. Such models consider known internal causes, primarily the periodic emergence of new virus variants that evade the host immune response. Yet, this alone is generally unable to explain the regularity of recurrences and the observed phase differences. Here we show that seasonality of viral respiratory diseases, as well as its distribution with latitude on the Earth, can be fully explained by the virucidal properties of UV-B and UV-A solar photons through a daily, minute-scale, resonant forcing mechanism. Such an induced periodicity can last, virtually unperturbed, from tens to hundreds of cycles, and even in the presence of internal dynamics (host's loss of immunity) much slower than seasonal will, on a long period, generate seasonal oscillations.
Volume
23
Issue
10
Start page
101605
Uri
Url
Issn Identifier
2589-0042
Rights
open.access
File(s)
Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Name

2007.02580.pdf

Description
preprint
Size

3.55 MB

Format

Adobe PDF

Checksum (MD5)

7c616d174f08accd1e0d9e8578465665

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Name

PIIS2589004220307975-2.pdf

Description
PDF editoriale
Size

3.63 MB

Format

Adobe PDF

Checksum (MD5)

c8086fdaeba6774b6bc0b7f6b8fc4c65