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  1. OA@INAF
  2. PRODOTTI RICERCA INAF
  3. 1 CONTRIBUTI IN RIVISTE (Journal articles)
  4. 1.01 Articoli in rivista
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12386/31035
Title: High accuracy short-term PWV operational forecast at the VLT and perspectives for sky background forecast
Authors: TURCHI, ALESSIO 
MASCIADRI, ELENA 
Pathak, P.
Kasper, M.
Issue Date: 2020
Journal: MONTHLY NOTICES OF THE ROYAL ASTRONOMICAL SOCIETY 
Number: 497
Issue: 4
First Page: 4910
Abstract: In this paper we present the first results ever obtained by applying the autoregressive (AR) technique to the precipitable water vapour (PWV). The study is performed at the Very Large Telescope. The AR technique has been recently proposed to provide forecasts of atmospheric and astroclimatic parameters at short time scales (up to a few hours) by achieving much better performances with respect to the 'standard forecasts' provided early afternoon for the coming night. The AR method uses the real-time measurements of the parameter of interest to improve the forecasts performed with atmospherical models. We used here measurements provided by LHATPRO, a radiometer measuring continuously the PWV at the VLT. When comparing the AR forecast at 1h to the standard forecast, we observe a gain factor of $\sim$ 8 (i.e. $\sim$ 800 per cent) in terms of forecast accuracy. In the PWV $\leq$ 1 mm range, which is extremely critical for infrared astronomical applications, the RMSE of the predictions is of the order of just a few hundredth of millimetres (0.04 mm). We proved therefore that the AR technique provides an important benefit to VLT science operations for all the instruments sensitive to the PWV. Besides, we show how such an ability in predicting the PWV can be useful also to predict the sky background in the infrared range (extremely appealing for METIS). We quantify such an ability by applying this method to the NEAR project (New Earth in the Alpha Cen region) supported by ESO and Breakthrough Initiatives.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12386/31035
URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2007.11966v1
https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/497/4/4910/5897386
ISSN: 0035-8711
DOI: 10.1093/mnras/staa2210
Bibcode ADS: 2019MNRAS.482..206T
Fulltext: open
Appears in Collections:1.01 Articoli in rivista

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