High accuracy short-term PWV operational forecast at the VLT and perspectives for sky background forecast
Date Issued
2020
Author(s)
Abstract
In this paper we present the first results ever obtained by applying the
autoregressive (AR) technique to the precipitable water vapour (PWV). The study
is performed at the Very Large Telescope. The AR technique has been recently
proposed to provide forecasts of atmospheric and astroclimatic parameters at
short time scales (up to a few hours) by achieving much better performances
with respect to the 'standard forecasts' provided early afternoon for the
coming night. The AR method uses the real-time measurements of the parameter of
interest to improve the forecasts performed with atmospherical models. We used
here measurements provided by LHATPRO, a radiometer measuring continuously the
PWV at the VLT. When comparing the AR forecast at 1h to the standard forecast,
we observe a gain factor of $\sim$ 8 (i.e. $\sim$ 800 per cent) in terms of
forecast accuracy. In the PWV $\leq$ 1 mm range, which is extremely critical
for infrared astronomical applications, the RMSE of the predictions is of the
order of just a few hundredth of millimetres (0.04 mm). We proved therefore
that the AR technique provides an important benefit to VLT science operations
for all the instruments sensitive to the PWV. Besides, we show how such an
ability in predicting the PWV can be useful also to predict the sky background
in the infrared range (extremely appealing for METIS). We quantify such an
ability by applying this method to the NEAR project (New Earth in the Alpha Cen
region) supported by ESO and Breakthrough Initiatives.
Volume
497
Issue
4
Start page
4910
Issn Identifier
0035-8711
Ads BibCode
2019MNRAS.482..206T
Rights
open.access
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