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  1. OA@INAF
  2. PRODOTTI RICERCA INAF
  3. 1 CONTRIBUTI IN RIVISTE (Journal articles)
  4. 1.01 Articoli in rivista
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12386/31060
Title: Forcing Seasonality of Influenza-like Epidemics with Daily Solar Resonance
Authors: NICASTRO, FABRIZIO 
SIRONI, GIORGIA 
Antonello, E
BIANCO, ANDREA 
Biasin, M
Brucato, JR
ERMOLLI, Ilaria 
PARESCHI, Giovanni 
Salvati, M
TOZZI, Paolo 
Trabattoni, D
Clerici, M
Issue Date: 2020
Journal: ISCIENCE 
Number: 23
Issue: 10
First Page: 101605
Abstract: Seasonality of acute viral respiratory diseases is a well-known and yet not fully understood phenomenon. Several models have been proposed to explain the regularity of yearly recurring outbreaks and the phase differences observed at different latitudes on the Earth. Such models consider known internal causes, primarily the periodic emergence of new virus variants that evade the host immune response. Yet, this alone is generally unable to explain the regularity of recurrences and the observed phase differences. Here we show that seasonality of viral respiratory diseases, as well as its distribution with latitude on the Earth, can be fully explained by the virucidal properties of UV-B and UV-A solar photons through a daily, minute-scale, resonant forcing mechanism. Such an induced periodicity can last, virtually unperturbed, from tens to hundreds of cycles, and even in the presence of internal dynamics (host's loss of immunity) much slower than seasonal will, on a long period, generate seasonal oscillations.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12386/31060
URL: https://www.cell.com/iscience/fulltext/S2589-0042(20)30797-5?_returnURL=https%3A%2F%2Flinkinghub.elsevier.com%2Fretrieve%2Fpii%2FS2589004220307975%3Fshowall%3Dtrue
ISSN: 2589-0042
DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2020.101605
Fulltext: open
Appears in Collections:1.01 Articoli in rivista

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